Why Bookies Will Never Get The Right Opening Odds
Sports bookies have been around as early in the 18th century and developed a special relationship with sports games where both are very much depending on each other.
However, despite years and years of experience in setting the opening odds, bookies are still struggling to get the right opening odds to determine the favorite team and the underdog.
Sports are not math but it needs more than a rocket scientist to calculate an outcome of a game.
With reference to our 18/19 English Premier League, bookies have only 59% of the success rate in picking the right favorite teams that won while the underdog claimed the remaining 41%.
Conventionally sports bookies will set the opening odds based on the probability of each outcome alongside with all the potential influences to the final result including, the home and away advantage, players injury, upcoming schedule as well as the pitch and weather conditions to come out with a set of perfect numbers for opening odds. BUT, there is one last thing before it is pushed to the market - an ‘X’ factor of how bookies think punters will bet on each outcome.
It is the ‘X’ factor that has the final influence on the opening odds which is a un-known that makes a game unpredictable. We'll share our betting experiences while waiting for the game to be resumed.